The Cruz-Kasich strategy

[HiTemp]

Okay, I don't get it. I mean, I get that Cruz thinks he's going to win Indiana if all the Kasich people have to choose between Trump and Cruz. But what happens if they go for Trump?

If the polling in the other states is correct, Trump will win all of them, but might lose Indiana. This mathematically eliminates Cruz - so, what's the point here?

I suppose Cruz imagines that he's going to win a contested convention, but if he does he's not going to draw in 25% of Trump supporters, given that he's done not much else than insult them. I don't see him winning a contested convention and prevailing against Hillary in the first place, but he has zero chance without almost all of the Trump vote. He won't get that by continuing on his path of scorched earth.

So what's the real game? If he wins a contested convention and loses the general, it's over for Tea Party candidates and victory for the RINOs. Never again will a conservative be allowed on the platform, and Cruz will become this generation's version of Nelson Rockefeller.

I heard today that Kasich is vetting VP choices. Any bets it will be Jeb?

[Grug - American Neanderthal]

Its a gamble. Cruz is mathematically eliminated from winning enough on the 1st ballot already as far as odds go, all this strategy is to quit dividing the anti trump vote,   and win states to keep him from getting 1237 and force it to a second ballot where he thinks he has made enough inroads to win it. I don't think it will pay off, because Kasich is a loser everywhere but locally.  On top of that Cruz is losing support now because people seem to think Kasich and Cruz are now joined, even though its more like temporary mutual exploitation rather than melding.

Of course Trump has to win, and that is something he is having trouble with even now, we will see how his sweep of east coast states translates for him.  His attitude is if everyone would drop out its would be a done deal, well no crap.  But the problem is he is only bringing 40% at best.

The problem is Trump has made himself a loser, neither side can win without support of the other in November, and trump is burning that bridge. Hillary is going to win, she can probably do so with something like 45% of the vote, maybe less since all the urban states will go her way. And just like Cruz, if Trump loses you can forget any "outsider" running again. What this is, is the GOP divesting itself from the small govt conservatives, they are willing to sacrifice majorities and the presidency to do it, and it looks like that's exactly whats going to happen.

[HiTemp]

It's the media and the Cruz campaign that are trying to sell the idea that Hillary would handily defeat Trump. I don't believe it. Trump's support is swelling, in fact on Drudge right now there is a story about the results of an NBC/Survey Monkey poll that shows Trump topping 50% for the first time. He was around 38% or so just a month ago, right around the time he lost Wisconsin. Not that I put much faith in polls this far out from the general, but they do show a rising trend, they show he's getting lots of votes, while Hillary is winning her contests against the Bern with record low turnouts. I'm not sure how that all fits together in terms of a general election, but it sort of indicates it's not a contest with results that are a given in November and it's not yet May.

Plus there is that nagging matter of the FBI investigation still to come out, and Judicial Watch just found solid evidence that someone at the Dept. of State was covering up documents dealing with Benghazi. Those two cannons have yet to fire a shot at the Clinton campaign, but I suspect they will and the results aren't going to be much to their liking.

Anything can happen at this point.

[Grug - American Neanderthal]

Well he has never averaged ahead of her in polling, he has never been higher than 43% among republicans nationally, and remember the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll had Cruz over Trump just a few weeks ago, which indicates how reliable individual polls are, so what in that makes him bringing home a majority? I don't see it, especially out west, the BS meter is pegged, even his own campaign says its an act. What he is doing is inspiring people who are not on the trump train to stay home.

I doubt Hillary will get an indictment, it would have been leaked that it was imminent by now, no way the dem controlled admin and dept of justice are going to make it an October surprise campaign issue at this point.

Stranger things have happened, and things can change in an instant, but I see the trump train headed for derailment when it comes to trying to appeal to everyone, and when he starts his pandering to the left after thuinking he has locked up the GOP, he is going to lose a lot of support from the base.

[HiTemp]

That's a good thing in my book, because then we won't have a lot of Republicans sitting around bitching like they did after the Romney loss. In this scenario, they'll be willing choosing to hand it to Hillary and thus will have nothing more to say on the matter, nor will they ever be taken seriously in any future attempt to get anyone but a Kasich/Romney/McCain in the nomination race. In short, the R party will blow up, and I honestly don't see that as a bad thing because they're effectively Democrats anyway.

Better we rebuild it from the ground up, and maybe another 12 years of a Dem in the WH will result in a nation so fed up it won't wait until the next election, it will just begin a revolution.

[Grug - American Neanderthal]

I have no love for the GOP, but it is the one thing in place that could stop the left, but they both have the same agenda of increasing the scope of the power of govt to benefit which ever oligarchy they are part of. Sure we can tear down and rebuild a party, which is unlikely, more likely they will retain control and drive enough people away to be a perpetual minority. The other option is make a new one, but by the time either way is ready to take on the left, its not going to be, or for that matter is not, the same republic we were raised in, and no party will ever bring that back. `We had a choice, we turned away from constitutionalism and have embraced populism. And that's the conservative side the other side is embracing a quasi fascist/ socialist government. So at this point I don't really give a damn about the GOP or any party or any candidate, the people of this country is its problem, they want a dictator, and and they are going to get what they want in spades. I am thinking maybe being a smart criminal would be the best way to excel in this brave new world.

[HiTemp]

Well every democracy in history that failed always ended up in a dictatorship, and it's not difficult to see why. When relativism is embraced as a norm, the value of truth is not just diminished, but destroyed. Without truth as a guiding principle, there can be no principle at all except strength of force. We see this right now, today, with ISIS. It's accept their god, their law, or die; or maybe die just because. When a small vocal group gets to shout and intimidate their way around legislated laws, that signals the end of a republic, because a republic can only work IF those who represent others stand and be faithful to those who sent them. When they take a relativistic approach, that "other immediate things" rightfully displace the needs and desires of their constituents, you have in effect a dictatorship led by a band of dictators. It's then only a matter of time before one of them decides they can control all the others, then welcome to the 4th Reich.


Right now we have no one in Washington fighting that battle. We have government agencies openly defying oversight and no one wants to do squat about it. As each day passes, the Constitution is further ignored, and hey, why not? It's relative; it says what you want for you, and what I want for me. All I have to do is shout louder and press the issue at every turn and if the powers that be capitulate to my ideas, you no longer have a Constitution nor anyone else willing to interpret it as you do. That's exactly what's being taught in our universities, not that it's just a changing document but it is a useless document because it blocks progress so the right thing to do is work around it until it's nothing more than paper and ink without a purpose save a nice historical display.

That is why I support someone who isn't cowed by the idiots who spout that kind of garbage. We need pushback, and there's only one candidate talking about doing that in any kind of bold way. Cruz isn't going to change trade, he's for it. He's not going to substitute Obamacare with something better, he's going to chaotically eliminate it and now instead of the 40 million uninsured that led to this fiasco we'll have 90 million uninsured and no coherent plan to fix it. That means the insurance companies will step in and fix it, and we'll be right back to the system we had 10 years ago only with higher costs and less coverage. That is, if he could even win, but I doubt that he could when he's finishing third in states with 15% of the vote, and those states will be crucial in winning a general. He doesn't see it, but he's coming across as far more of a potential tyrant than Trump, and I suspect that's why few people believe him. He has ties to the very people who are funding and promoting a lot of our economic chaos, and I personally don't believe he's going to suddenly leave those people in a ditch. The only thing I really do trust about him are that he'd bring conservative judges to the SCOTUS, but then again Roberts was his favorite and that didn't work out well at all for us. Also I believe he'd show fiscal restraint to some degree but not enough to persuade Congress to make significant change.

It's the same beef I had with McCain - if he isn't able to sway minds while he's one of the club, how am I supposed to believe he's going to do that when he's in a different club altogether? I just don't see it happening especially when the press starts in on him making him a worse monster than W. Bush. I don't trust the rest of Congress to ignore the liberal press and side with Cruz. Trump will have the same problem, but Trump isn't going to try and reason with them and give them sound debating points; he's just going to call them idiots and move along. He doesn't care if they like him or not.

[Grug - American Neanderthal]

Trump is going to do all these things? He did not get rich by bucking the system, he got so by using it, I assume he will want to remain rich and be able to use that system, so tell me again how is going to change everything? As far as trade, his primary idea is to impose tariffs, which kills trade and make things more expensive here, other wise known as inflation, what a great idea to combine with stagnant wages. Both of them talk about cutting corporate taxes.

Where was Trump when we trying to stop Obama care? the links? He said he likes the mandate, well mandates are not a free market solution, so he is now doing just like the current admin is, regulating markets. His solution is to expand medicaid coverage for people who can't afford it. Both of them want to allow insurance competition by selling across state lines. So I am not seeing this singular visionary plan of his on healthcare.


And you don't trust Cruz because he is linked to banks, that's fair. I don't trust Trump either for multiple reasons including he was one of the rich who buying access right up until he knew that would be bad imaging for a presidential run, but the biggest one is I have never seen him change, he is doing now just like he has done in business, and if you want to see how that works, look up what he did to Aberdeen and how his promises panned out when things didn't go his way.

He throws out these grand statements about how he is going to eliminate the debt, stop illegal immigration and deport them all, and the walks all that back when he actually taken to task on how and and when, and then his big ideas are really not so big after all, and in fact some sound a lot like what the establishment or worse, the democrats want.

But lets say he is the outsider he is selling himself as, if congress doesn't go along, and he calls them stupid and just does what he wants, there is a word for that, Tyrant.

I know trump is a liar, he does it every single time when he makes his stump speeches, sure, so do the rest of them, and that's the problem he is no different in the end, but people are projecting on him to be what they wish him to. I won't do that, no matter how bad I want it to be true.

[HiTemp]

Well my crystal ball doesn't work any better than anyone else's.

As far as the tariffs go, I don't think that's really the aim, that is just the threat of what could happen if they don't sit down and give an earnest effort at the bargaining table. From what I hear when Trump talks about trade is that he's really aiming to have more fair trade agreements where we don't end up losing our shirts in deficits and the process is more fair. Well, how is that ever going to happen if there is no penalty for wanting open markets for their products while closing their marketplaces to ours? Like China. Like Japan. It would seem the only way you get these countries to see the problem is to make them face the same consequences our country faces every day. Yes, it would make products more expensive if tariffs were in place, and it actually might take a period of that, but Japan and China are not going to sit still and watch their own GDPs evaporate and that, I think, is Trump's point. They need to see that the bargaining table is the better solution for them.

I don't think Trump is going to "change everything," at least not in terms of throwing a system or a program overboard and making a new one. What I think he's after is a concerted effort to get away from owing 22 Trillion dollars and that debt being carried by nations who are not really our friends. In order to do that, trade will have to change to more favorable terms to us. If we want a better military, we have to change how we fund it and how it's managed day-to-day, and right now it isn't managed very well. We're back to the days of buying $700 screwdrivers that don't fit any fasteners in our inventory. We're replacing an inventory of 50-million dollar fighter jets with multi-mission jets at almost 2 billion per copy - and we aren't even sure if they will do what the contract required them to do.

No business can run that way and stay alive. Trump knows that end of it very well, as he's had both successes and failures in his own businesses. Just because he's had failures doesn't make him a loser necessarily unless he didn't learn from his mistakes. He understands the necessity of putting the right people in key positions to make changes happen. Consider his example of Caroline Kennedy being our negotiator with Japan on trade issues. Wouldn't you rather have one of the people Trump mentions as top-level negotiators in deals all over the world representing us at the bargaining table? I would. Especially in military affairs. It grinds on me every time I see one of these Generals or Admirals at a microphone puking out liberal talking points that have nothing to do with national defense, only liberal policy garbage to make sure somebody somewhere doesn't have hurt feelings.

I don't want flag officers like that running our military. Peace through strength works; it's been proven by Truman, Kennedy, and Reagan. I want flag officers who are more concerned about a plan to sink every vessel in N. Korea's navy in 24 hrs or contain and tighten a noose around ISIS than whether or not confused gender male corporals feel comfortable using the women's head in the Pentagon. Now Cruz, I believe, to some extent, would do this also but would do it by demanding the people we have now change their ideologies and become warriors, like it or not. Trump, on the other hand, would just replace them with people who have the right goals. That's pure speculation on my part, but it seems consistent with how each of them operates.

Trump has made a living negotiating deals, deals in which he came out well on top. Cruz has made his term in the Senate all about standing for a position no one else will support, thus he's alone over on an extreme edge that doesn't sell itself as an idea. What would Cruz do when Congress sends him a budget he doesn't like? Is he likely to sit down with them and work it out, or is he likely to bully pulpit his views and repeat his Senate performance where he obstinately refuses to give up his personal position? What would be the result of that? Do we stay in perpetual government shutdown or do you think Congress would start running scared of the blame and override his veto? I think that latter. I think Trump would negotiate, and the problem here is when you say negotiate people picture that as giving away the store, but that's only true if one doesn't know how to negotiate and gets taken for a ride. I can't, even on his best day, imagine Paul Ryan out-negotiating Trump on anything.

What do you make of Cruz picking a VP, and what do you think about his choice?

[zrct02]

First, I would not be a bit unhappy to see the Republican Party go belly up.
Next, Hillary is not in any trouble with Justice Dept. Obama grants an all incompassing pardon at the slightest hint of an indictment and she is home free.
Finally, Hillary will be our next President.

[Grug - American Neanderthal]

I agree with most of that, except trump picking all the right people. His campaign has been a disaster on the ground, even his people have complained about that, he then picks an insider to run his delegates and keep them in order and maybe pick up a few unbound, and then complained and threatened when he got out maneuvered by Cruz people in that. If not for Trumps free media time and popular populist rhetoric, it would have looked a lot different now.

Does it not occur that the reason we are in 20 trillion of debt is deals are made to start with? That IS the problem with DC, no one is telling them no. When Cruz filibustered Obamacare, or caused the "shut down" people were not complaining about him except those who are in support of big govt, they turned around and wanted him to run for president. If they want to override vetos to increase the debt, how do you think that's going to play? Let them, and let the progressive be weeded out of the party. Conversely when Trump signs a new spending increase, how will you explain that when that is opposite of everything he is promising now?

I don't see Cruz keeping a lot of these progressive bureaucrats dept heads and PC military officers, I would look to him to clean some house, he does have an ax to grind with a lot of these guys. I think they both would bring a new view of our war fighting, shift the mission to something about defeating and isolating our enemies.

I think Trump would be pretty good on negotiating trade deals, but the stuff I have heard Cruz talk about is pretty dang smart on that too, but I think Trump brings a reputation with him, good or bad that intimidates that Cruz lacks. The problem with Trumps deals is while he may walk away unhurt when they fall apart, most everyone else in them suffers a loss. And has no problem being in bed with people like Soros, who maneuvers his money for an agenda. I do not want that kind of leader myself.

The early VP pick announcement is just to get Trump out of the news cycle and generate some sort of momentum to go into Indiana and shore up some in CA. But I don't think it will pay off, has not really bumped him much that I can see. I think Trump is on a roll now, people tend to be heard animals, and once the heard starts moving they tend to follow. He may make 1237 by the convention and all of Cruz's planning and strategy will be moot. Though I don;t think he should drop out yet, the Donald needs to actually earn it and not just assume because he ants it, its his.

As far as Hillary, since the GOP is so fractured, its hers to lose. If Obama hates the Clintons enough he may allow an indictment, on the other hand he knows it will undo his legacy and withhold it, and despite the dems own problems, I bet by Nov, most of them except the millennials will fall in line and vote for her, especially against Trump who will continue to polarize.

[Grug - American Neanderthal]

Well looks like its the Donald. I guess we see if he can win the best of the worst race.

[HiTemp]

I don't know... found out today he definitely doesn't have Jeb's vote. Guess it's all over.

[Grug - American Neanderthal]

I only wish the ones who say they will leave if he gets elected actually would.