Hmmmm, No Surprise?

[stetto]

I've always considered polls to be as reliable as a carnival barker's promise, but isn't this the time when everyone shoves the polls in each others' faces to gloat? Something amiss, says I...


Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention

By Susan Page, USA TODAY
Last week's Democratic convention boosted voters' impressions of John Kerry but failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds.

John Kerry campaigns Sunday in Bowling Green, Ohio.
By J.D. Pooley, Sentinel-Tribune

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, Bush led Kerry 50%-46% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was at 2%.

The survey showed Kerry losing 1 percentage point and Bush gaining 4 percentage points from a poll taken the week before the Boston convention.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/-4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless surprising, the first time since the chaotic Democratic convention in 1972 that a candidate hasn't gained ground during his convention.

USA TODAY extended its survey to Sunday to get a fuller picture of what's happening.

A Newsweek poll taken Thursday and Friday gave the Democratic ticket a 49%-42% lead. Over three weeks, that reflected a 4-point "bounce" for Kerry, the smallest ever in the Newsweek poll.

Among registered voters in the USA TODAY poll, Kerry and Bush each had 47%. Bush was up 4 points, Kerry unchanged from the pre-convention survey.

Analysts said the lack of a bounce may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say their minds are made up and won't change. "The convention, typically a kicking-off point for a party, is now merely a reaffirmation" of where voters stand, said David Moore, senior editor of the Gallup Poll.

"In a race this tight, the polls are going to be all over the place," said Stephanie Cutter, Kerry's communications director. "Most importantly, voters now clearly trust John Kerry more than Bush to lead and defend America."

But Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said "history doesn't bode well" for Kerry. Since World War II, the three challengers who have unseated presidents held clear leads after their conventions.

Democratic leaders have expressed delight about the convention, which showed a united party and emphasized national security. Those surveyed gave the convention and its candidate high marks:

Kerry's acceptance speech Thursday was rated as "excellent" by 26%, a more positive response than Bush got in 2000. A 44% plurality said the Democrats were "about right" in criticizing Bush; 30% said they went too far.

Views of Kerry's personal characteristics and leadership improved; views of Bush didn't change much. Bush's edge in handling terrorism was shaved to 12 points from 18. In a switch, Kerry now is trusted more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief, by 51%-46%.

Kerry's military service is seen as a plus. A 52% majority says it would help him be an effective president. More than one in four say it makes them more likely to vote for him.

[stetto]

I guess that the proof of the statement concerning polarization of voters may be told after the Republican convention....

[Richard]

The talking heads of the networks fell over themselves saying how good Kerry's speech was, to me it was not inspiring enough nor any thing new that I haven't heard for the last 15 years.

[Grug - American Neanderthal]

Well a couple things come to mind, Kerry had to lay out specifically how he was going to change the things he says he wants to, and he didn't. c It seems that yesterday he looked at the poll numbers and decided to take the "get our troops out" stance for Iraq, we'll see if this is going to play well voters, my guess it won't.

And I try to keep in mind the only poll that really counts is the one in November.

[Richard]

Kerry said his plans are secret, and he won't say what they are till after he is elected One of Kerry's purple hearts are from a cut no bigger than my wife gets from breaking a glass while washing dishes by hand. I allways thought it was given for a wound.

[JohnC]

John-boy's speech was nothing more than a hack speech-writer's attempt to include all the possible hot-button items they could think of. I heard that he spent three weeks working on it... he wasted his time. JohnC

[stetto]

Hmmm, an inerview I heard just today with the Hon. Mr. Kerry has him denying that he pays ANY attention to polls whatsoever...Now this is a retraction of how many public acknowledgements of the polls on his part?

...He certainly checks with the weatherman each day for wind direction, doesn't he?

Oh, and when was the last time a candidate kept his plans to "fix" what was wrong with America secret and won? (I'm asking this because I don't know, but I assume that the American electorate can't be that stupid...)

[MadWags]

stetto said:

Oh, and when was the last time a candidate kept his plans to "fix" what was wrong with America secret and won? (I'm asking this because I don't know, but I assume that the American electorate can't be that stupid...)

Yeh?, don't kid yourself. A little less than half of them are.

[Grug - American Neanderthal]

Actually it may be more than that. Its a given that a candidate can ciount on roughly 30% of the party base to vote for him no matter what. So 60% of the electorate thinks its irrelevant what the issues are or who the candidates are, just what the letter is beside their name.